It’s the time of year kids love to hate…the start of school. It’s also the time of year the college kids move into the dorm, and fall sports are beginning, and even before that starts, UMBC has already fired its first shot towards College Park in the form of a soccer ball. It’s also the time of year when some publications begin making their predictions towards the college basketball season.
Around the blogosphere, predictions for this coming year include problems with shooting accuracy, two predictions of eighth place, and a player to watch. While more mainstream publications usually wait until Midnight Madness approaches before their predictions, this blog will be one more place to get a prediction.
Following two straight trips to the conference championship, UMBC practically fell to the bottom of the college basketball world, with a record of 4-26. Three of those wins were against conference opponents, keeping UMBC out of ninth place, and while no one had any delusions of a third trip to a championship, no one could have foreseen how bad last season went. Over the course of the season, it seemed like the team was getting better, topped off with the regular season finale in Durham, NH, beating New Hampshire 79-50.
The most logical prediction going into the season is that most of UMBC’s key players from last year showed notable improvement and will return to the squad. However, four departures were even more key, as the Retrievers lose Matt Spadafora (graduation) Chauncey Gilliam and Shawn Grant (transferred out) and Robbie Jackson (academics). I don’t see a fast rise to the top like I would hope, but I would not be surprised at all to see UMBC climb out of the cellar at all. As I see it, the starting lineup should look as follows:
Chris De La Rosa
Travis King
Chase Plummer
Adrien Satchel
Justin Fry
I know what everyone’s thinking…why start with two players who are wearing a UMBC jersey for the first time? Well, it’s logical about King, the former GW player using his final year of eligibility as a grad student brings experience to the squad, something that was severely lacking one year ago. While playing against UMBC last season for the Colonials, King shot 3 for 4, 2 for 2 from the line for 8 points and nabbed 3 rebounds. Pretty impressive for just a 16 minute outing. As for Chase Plummer, he should be a serviceable replacement for Grant, and Brian Neller should continue to be a threat from the bench at his position. Throw in redshirt freshman Jamar Wertz, that whole spot on the floor will be a big threat.
The biggest question mark every Retriever fan should either be nervous or excited about is Justin Fry. The big man officially listed as a forward makes his return after taking a medical redshirt last season following an MCL injury suffered late in the 2008-2009 season against Maine. During his first three years on the court, he has frustrated some in the stands, but it wasn’t until last year that fans really realized how much he brought to the table. It would have been nice to see him as a twin-threat with Jackson, but in what’s now considered an A-List school by Parade Magazine, SEC Football shenanigans do not apply.
You read Parade Magazine? Ugh!
Fortunately, Fry can be spelled by freshman Matt Conway, out of the John Zito Pipeline. What was most anticipated when Fry returned was having two big guys on the court at the same time. Now that’s still a possibility, but the freshman would need more experience. Fortunately, he has one year of prep experience under his belt.
Another player I would like to see get more playing time is Bakari Smith. Hopefully, he is out of Randy Monroe’s doghouse, because the few minutes he played last year, as well as the previous year, his sophomore year, was extremely productive. It has been mentioned that he is the most athletic player on the squad, and this despite the year he took off between his one JUCO year and his first year on the Retrievers’ squad. He should be a stronger cog in UMBC’s rebound year.
Finally, there’s the strongest point on the squad for the past five years…the point guard position. After an initial struggle early on last season, De La Rosa has become one of the players to look after in the league. It’s a good thing that he has two more seasons remaining. His backup, Nick Groce, needs more experience on the court, and also needs to show more confidence in his shooting like he did in high school. At that level, he wasn’t afraid to shoot, highlighted by the MIAA B championship in front of his future teammates, and I think at this level, he shouldn’t be afraid to pull the trigger like he was last season.
I don’t envision a 24-9 season, nor do I envision a 4-26 season either. It’s funny how a team can go from a high to a low so quickly, but this year, UMBC should be shooting up the conference ladder.
neilballofrubber
abrose04
truegrit06
I would think that a 13-16 record this year would be a significant improvement over last year and into the level where another jump to 19-20 wins the following year could be feasible.
Notre Dame, Rider, UConn, and Duquesne are the only OOC games that are likely Ls. Every other game should at least be an opportunity for a W if we play well.
I’m looking forward to the season. I think we’ve got a lot more talent on this team than the statistics indicate but we’ll have to see how much stepping away from the meatgrinder that was last season helped everyone’s psyches recover.