Time to Start Thinking About This Coming Year

With school starting this week, I think it’s time to start looking at the upcoming season and make all those crazy predictions that gets me all these crazy “what the hell are you thinking?”‘s online.  Still, it’s nice to see some of my predictions from last year come so true.  So let’s rehash.  “Hartford, ESPN’s favorite story, would flop.”  Check.  “Vermont would flop.”  Half-check, because though they did do well in the regular season, they flopped in the tourney.  “Fans of the league footprint would criticize the champions as illegitimate.”  Check.  “A referee would blatantly affect the outcome of a UMBC game and would receive a reprimand from the Collegiate Commissioners Association.”  Check (and have a new rule in his honor).  “UMBC would beat Boston in the championship.”  Barely a half-check, maybe a quarter-check.  “UMBC would repeat.”  Well, that one kinda blew up in my face, though we did make it to the championship with a full injury-free squad, something the team was lacking during the conference season.

So with that, I’m going to give my crazy predictions for this upcoming year, some will be criticized, some will be a head-scratcher, some will be obvious, and some you might even think about for a bit and like.

UMBC Will Probably Finish Around .400.
Let’s be honest.  UMBC went to the championship game two years in a row, and still have players left over from the championship season, but what is left probably won’t make it past the first round in Hartford.  This team has five freshmen; that’s just under half of the squad.  Last year, we witnessed 33.6 points per game graduate in two players.  From the championship year, the sophomores are now seniors, but the freshman from that team walked out of the program in a matter of one month early last season.  The current junior class now includes Bakari Smith, who rarely played last season, though should be for the guard spot, and transfer/big guy Robbie Jackson.  The good news is that this group of freshmen is considered the best recruiting class the school has ever received (though some Vermont fans insist on comparing two pieces of shit) by various recruiting services, including ESPN.  That leads us to the next prediction.

UMBC Will Return to the NCAA Tournament Before 2013
That year signifies the senior year of the current freshmen class, and yes, I know I’m thinking ahead of “this coming year”.  But that’s how much faith I have in these five players.  Even if one or two of them decided to transfer, there still is enough talent which can attract younger players with equal amounts of talent in the coming years.  The 2008 championship laid the groundwork for a good recruiting class (highlighted by Nick Groce’s quick commit at the end of his junior year of high school).  In addition, two other very talented commits who have not enrolled in UMBC will do so in the future, making the future that much brighter.  To the freshmen who moved into the dorms this past Saturday and happen to find this blog (or ask around who those three old-ass morons are swinging stuffed monkeys in the front row are), I implore you, do not see a mediocre season as a sign that UMBC’s basketball program is bad.  Ask anyone who moved onto campus today what the atmosphere of the school was like two school years ago, not just games, but in the days and hours leading up to games, was like, because before you leave school, you’ll know it.

This Will Be New Hampshire’s Year
I said it two years ago, and I stand by it.  If you want to talk about the 2010 championship, you need to have New Hampshire in the discussion.  They have brought in so much talent in the past two years, it’s obvious that their coach has turned the program around in a hockey school.  Alvin Abreu and Dane DeLiegro, two freshmen who pushed UMBC to the brink in overtime the night the Retrievers sealed a NIT bid, are two of the most underrated players in the league.  DeLiegro even had the opportunity to play under Tennessee Volunteer coach Bruce Pearl as part of the US squad in the Maccabi Games this past summer.  I don’t want to be the only one not caught flat-footed when you see UNH in the championship game, but I have  a feeling I will be.

Vermont Fans Will Call for the Firing of Coach Mike Lonergan
The former Maryland Terrapin assistant has been criticized by fans of the Catamounts for not delivering championships and notoriety the same way his predecessor Tom Brennan did.  I think it’s unfair for Lonergan to face that, and I don’t really believe that I’m alone.  The league has gotten much, much deeper since the days of Boston, Northeastern and Vermont dominating this league and the defections of four schools (Towson, Drexel, Delaware and Hofstra) leaving en masse a decade ago.  First came Albany, then came UMBC, then came Binghamton.  As stated above, next comes New Hampshire.  Sure, Boston fired longtime coach Dennis “Daddy” Wolff in an effort (well conceived) to bring basketball attention to a hockey-mad school (how can it not be hockey-mad?).  I just think that Vermont fans will push the Dennis Wolff-treatment on Lonergan.

While we’re on the subject of Boston’s Frozen Four victory, a round of beers in Fells Point to the person who can tell me the connection that championship has to UMBC’s club-DII team.  Hint: it involves Navy, Florida-Gulf Coast and Alabama-Huntsville, and please be as specific as possible.

At Least Two Referees This Season Will Be Terminated After a Game With UMBC
One of the biggest criticisms leveled towards me is that I tend to blame referees after UMBC losses.  While some is unwarranted, facts are facts.  Since the joining the league in 2003, I personally know about four referees being disciplined one way or another by the College Commissioners Association (the people in charge of college officiating in all sports) after home games alone.  I couldn’t really say if there were on road games, I don’t know.  After the Feburary game against Boston, all UMBC games have been under a microscope since.  Paul Mittermier, a freelance radio color-commentator in the Baltimore area who does UMBC games with fellow-freelancer Gary Stein, called it “disrespect for UMBC affecting their performance” after a close UMBC win over Hartford in January 2008.  Personally, I think UMBC doesn’t have the name recognition that some front office people want, but when Drake Tungsten says “And I believe that sort of of shtick comes from the top. I’ve been told that at games even UMBC’s AD starts yelling at the refs,” he might want to start looking up the conference food-chain.  This leads to the last prediction of a very long post.

Drake Tungsten Will Return to America Least
Yes, he and I bicker.  But that’s the beauty of blogs, and that’s what drives up our hit-numbers.  Let’s face it, America Least has gotten stale.  Fans used to find out about stories from him and debate it on the message board.  Now, news is being posted on that site that’s weeks old, and my recruit list is more impressive and up to date than Buddy Franklin’s.  Does he even know that Jamar Wertz has signed with UMBC?  I think not.  How about a mention of the update on Kevin Jones and Alex Jackson?  Face it, when I’m the one calling for the return of Drake Tungsten, people might want to consider it.

Well that’s it.  That beer offer stands until the end of UMBC’s season.  Last year I went four and-a-half four six, let’s hope I can improve on that (actually, I’m really hoping I’m wrong on the ref part).  And by the way, check out women’s coach Phil Stern’s new blog.